Climate change could make good coffee a luxury

Fall is always a good time to create new habits, and coffee chains know this. These days, they are desperately trying to find any excuse to get you to drink their java. Many chains are using National or International Coffee Day (both Oct. 1) as a reason to offer their coffee at a discount, or even for free. For restaurant operators, there is no better hook than coffee to get repeat business. But given what is on the horizon, offering free coffee may no longer be an option for businesses.

Coffee demand around the world is shifting. Europe still accounts for almost one third of the coffee consumed worldwide, but China has doubled its consumption in just the last five years. As for Canada, numbers remain robust, as more than 90 per cent of adult Canadians drink coffee. Another probable factor is the fact that several recent studies suggest coffee is a healthy choice. 

Coffee is the most traded commodity in the world, after oil. Coffee is grown in more than 60 countries and allows 25 million families worldwide to make a living.Despite not being a staple in any diet, coffee is big business. But there is growing consensus among experts that climate change will severely affect coffee crops within approximately the next 80 years. By 2100, more than 50 per cent of the land used to grow coffee will no longer be arable. A combination of effects, resulting from higher temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, will make the land where coffee is currently grown unsuitable for its production. According to the National Academy of Sciences, in Latin America alone, more than 90 per cent of the land used for coffee production could suffer this fate. It is estimated that Ethiopia, the sixth largest producer in the world, could lose over 60 per cent of its production by 2050. This is only a generation away.

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